Week 15 Stats

So the end of the week brought a slight change for the positive in the amount lost from Monday. -8.7% for the week but it's still better than -10%. And I relearned some important lessons along the way. I'll be doing my best to sear those lessons into my brain over the next couple weeks.

Day 55. +8.7. The trend IS my friend.

Remembering my lessons. Small losses. Going with the trend. Staying away from ranges and S/R levels.

This may be my last post for the next two weeks. I'm going to get surgery on my eye to remove a pterygium and I don't know if I'll be up for trading after the surgery. Also, I'll be staying at my Aunt's and I don't know what her internet connection is like. Bringing my laptop just in case though.

Adios!

Day 54. -10. ;p

It appears there's another lesson the market wanted to teach me. Which is...GO WITH THE TREND. Of course I should go with trend. Hellllo. As you can see in the first part of the chart I for whatever reason did NOT trade with the trend. I was trading in a range. It was about 30pips wide, but still rangy and choppy and that's where I got my ass kicked. I didn't know how much I was down but I knew it was substantial (later found out it was around 35 pips). At that point I was thinking "Holyyyyy FUCK. Not again." hah. Then I thought, "Wait, wait, wait. This is where things get hard. I can't get down on myself and I can't quit like this. But I can't trade with this mindset either." I told myself it was gut check time and I needed to pull it together. Took some deep breaths and a couple minutes out and saw exactly why I was getting tossed around like a whore. TREND TREND TREND. Shortly thereafter a trend developed and I slowly worked my way back up from -35 to only -10 (only -10, hah). Had I traded with the trend from the very beginning I'd have a +25 day rather than a -10. But such is life when you forget the lessons you learned previously.

Day 53. +6.5. One foot in front of the other.

Was a bit nervous today due to my trading over the last week. Started feeling like I couldn't see my setups or identify good times to get in. But once I focused on going with the trend and taking small bites it started coming back to me. Two trades for 6.5. The second trade though I missed a huge part of the move. I exited way too soon because I was so jumpy, hah, but after a couple days I'm sure everything will be back to normal. For now, it's a good start back in the right direction. So gonna end it here for today and play some guitar before going to work.

Percentage Stats

I decided to look at my trades and tally them up on a spreadsheet to put my loss on Monday in perspective. It was actually better than I thought and progress is definitely seen. The chart shows the weekly % changes in account size, as well as the total for each month. Right now I'm in week 15. The loss on Monday was equal to 10% but is not included because the week isn't over yet. Even with that 10% loss I'm still doing quite well and the gains are on an upward progression which is reassuring. Plan to continue tracking this as time goes on.

Day 52 (Monday) -43!!! An expensive lesson

I traded yesterday and things were going swell until the desire to hit a home run struck me again. It happened right after a I took a loss...however, I wasn't even negative at that point. I was still up a few pips! From there my trading degenerated into what has been happening over the last week. Those huge gains I made with trading bad were promptly taken away. Which makes sense, because in a way I didn't really earn them. It was more like the market let me hold on to the pips to see what it felt like then decided to teach me a lesson and take it back.

At the time I was so disgusted with my trading I didn't even want to look at the screen to take a screenshot of the chart. I just shut it all down and felt sorry for myself. But last night it really started to sink in that it was all my doing. I CHOSE to trade that way. It was completely up to me to put myself back in the hole. And it's completely up to me to get myself back out of it again. Which I will.

I was going to trade today but was so tired when I woke up that I decided it was better to get some sleep. I don't want to repeat the same mistakes so need to be fully rested. So tomorrow (Wed), I'll be back at it.

No trades today.

Decided to take a day off from trading and clean out the clutter from my head. I'm already feeling more relaxed and have a clear idea where I was going wrong and why. Looking forward to trading again on Monday! Until then, it's the weekend!

Day 51. +.7 Super dumb trading.

While I came out slightly ahead in the end, today's trading was truly garbage. Easily the worst trading I've done in a long time and extremely disappointed with myself. This is the type of trading that blows people's accounts up and I thought I was above it by this point. Apparently not. $10 in the bad boy jar today. :(

I still have to ponder ponder ponder to be sure, but I think I know what's up. I've focused my mind on going for 10pips a day, instead of 4. This appears to be having a domino affect.

10 pip goal > enter in areas I wouldn't normally to catch bigger moves > these plays have a higher rate of failure which put me back more often > When I do go into profit I hold longer to get more pips since I have a bigger goal > Which leads to allowing bigger stops to account for the bigger swings to reach my bigger goals > If I get stopped out I now have a large stop that was hit plus many small ones > I'm down a hefty amount which adds more fuel to going for even bigger moves > the cycle repeats. 

In contrast to...

4 pip goal > enter in very specific high probability areas > make a pip or two and exit > if take a loss or two, they are tiny so easy to make up > repeat a couple times > have my 4+ pips and done for the day.

Soooooo much easier on me that way. I already learned this lesson several months ago, or so I thought. And I know I've been reminding myself of this a little much lately so clearly there is something unresolved that I need to figure out.

Hmmmm, something just came to me. That familiar feeling. The desire to switch switch switch. Inconsistency. For a while there I was going along doing my own thing making pips and being merry. But a couple weeks ago I started becoming more active on Forex boards. I wasn't looking for a new method but someone mentioned in a non-related thread that some guys are making xx amount of pips a day. Piqued my interest so I checked it out. Method is somewhat similar to mine but they enter like scalpers and hold more like daytraders or sometimes swing traders. Which nets them tons of pips. This idea planted itself in my mind. Reflecting back on the one thought that has dominated my mind lately it's obvious. I've been completely focused on entering and holding holding holding. Making 20, 30, 40 pips a day. When I think about the future I think about making more and more and more pips. Without purposely meaning to I've changed a core principal of my method. I'm no longer trading like myself. I'm trading like someone else. Someone I don't even know. This is exactly what happened the last time I went through this.

Perhaps my recent string of success has left me in a vulnerable state. My wins increasing my vanity, allowing old demons to slip back in disguised as friends. Not even friends. Disguised as me!

I need to think.

Day 50. +10.7. Fear and greed.

Today I did exactly what I said didn't want to do (yesterdays post). I felt price was going down and knew it would bounce back after it broke. As expected it did exactly that. Fortunately, this time it didn't reach my predetermined exit point and I was able to ride it out and down for profit. But I said yesterday that I wanted to exit when it stalls rather than take major heat and possible huge loss. But I stayed in and I've identified why. It's because of fear and greed.

When price broke down and bounced I went from +7 pips to "only" +4 pips. I didn't like losing those paper 3pips and possibly more (fear) and wanted to hold to make them back and more (greed). I also knew that once it went further it would continue. So it broke down again so I was then +9 and it bounced again so I was only +7pips. And I held more until it retraced hard. Though price was saying it wanted to go down, which is a valid reason to hold, fear and greed spurring me on is not a valid reason. For that alone I should have exited. Looking back I can see where these two emotions have affected me in the past and it's always been something that tickled the back of my mind. Though I wanted to trade more today I'm ending my session because I really need to get a handle on this before it causes major damage.

Day 49. +18.3. Three trades and a Small Milestone

That second trade may look a little strange. I was around 7 pips in profit and let it turn into a 14pip loser. However, it was planned out beforehand. When I put in that second pending order I felt confident that price was going down. When it broke I felt that price was screaming in my face, "We're going down!!!!! Then we're going to retrace, we may even retrace hard but I'm telling you Soma, WE'RE GOING DOWN EVEN FURTHER!!!. LOOK AT US MOVE. WE'RE GOING DOOOOWN!!!" hah. Based on how price was behaving I was totally convinced it was going down, would likely retrace, but then go down even further. I even told myself that I was so sure of it I would be willing to eat a large loss.

So price broke down, stalled then bounced back up. Higher, higher, and higher still. I had already planned to get out above a certain point and when price reached that point I exited with a 14pip loss. I didn't feel upset though or any despair whatsoever. It was more like gratitude to myself for grabbing my balls and going with my conviction. I felt that I would be right doing this much more often than I'd be wrong so it would all works itself out in the end. Anyway, wouldn't you know, as soon as I exited price turned. 'There it goes" I told myself and was going to get in after a break beneath the previous low. But then I though, "Wait a second. I know it's going lower. It's telling me it will. I know it's going to break past where I previously thought. Is there a better place to get in than the previous low?" And there was. So I put in the pending. It hit and exactly as I expected it broke down and I took a 30+ pip win.

Replaying this in my mind it's great that I made 18 pips today. But an even better play would have been just to exit when it stalled then get back in like a usually do. That would have given me around the same result except I wouldn't have a loss to overcome. And what if I happened to be wrong and price would have kept going up? Then I may not have been able to so easily make up the loss. So yeah, better to stick to what I normally do and continue working on holding when price screams at me.

Oh yeah, the milestone! Today, after over a year in Forex I am finally profitable!!! Fuck yeah. In 2010, for 9 months I steadily lost money jumping from method to method and always changing rules. It wasn't until I got serious and made this 60day challenge for myself in Jan 2011 that things finally started turning around. Since Jan I've slowly and consistently clawed my way back up, and now I can say I am out of the hole. I am officially profitable. haha. Yes! Gonna keep it up and keep moving forward.

Day 48. +11. First day at 200k (2 lots)

Self-explanatory chart.

Feeling more and more confident in my abilities each day I decided to up my account even further and traded 200k units which is 2 full lots. I wondered if there would be much difference in slippage vs the 10k units I used when I first started but no, seems the same so far. Muy bueno.

Also I'm pushing myself a bit more. Again I made some pips in the beginning and would normally stop there. But I feel I'm capable of more and want to push myself further. So continued to trade. Took a few small losses then a couple big wins and one tiny one to put me at +11 pips for the day.

Day 47. +28.7. Overtrading and lessons

 
Long one today.

Started off the day with a couple wins for around 5 pips. Normally I'd stop there but I decided to go for more. Well, I think I was feeling a little too confident because I took some trades that I normally wouldn't. On top of that price was really did not want to play nice with my method of trading. But I think the biggest problem was just me getting ahead of myself and thinking I could win almost any trade, hah. This is a feeling I've touched on previously when I mentioned that while playing poker, if I was up a good amount I'd start to get reckless. I actually noticed this feeling within myself over the last couple days and was trying to let go of it. Apparently it still got to me, though there is one very good thing..

In the past if I were down a bunch of money I would feel a sense of despair and I'd think, "Fuck it, I've already lost this much who cares if I lose more?!" and I'd start to make really dumb plays which would cause me to lose more money. Those were rough times. Today, due to the trades I was taking I was down around 15pips. I felt that familiar sense of, "Fuck it, let's take this next trade, who cares if we lose more?!" Ugh. I felt it loud and clear but I recognized it and forced myself to take a minute out. Took some deep breaths and told myself, "No can't take just any trade. Everything will be fine. Focus. Relax. Take only the good trades. If we have a losing day, fine, but lets at least salvage what we can."

After steadying myself I took stock of what I was doing wrong and what the chart was telling me. As I looked at it price was definitely saying it wanted to go down, then I looked at the larger charts and I saw that they agreed. My main chart showed a very distinct pattern and I felt that if there was any way I would salvage the day it would be by taking that one trade. So I had to wait. No just jumping in willy nilly silly billy. And when the trade hits I would have to be patient and let it run just like price was telling me it wanted to do. So I waited and watched very closely. 20 minutes later price hit exactly where I wanted and bounced to continue the same exact pattern. I got in and held, knowing that the momentum of each level break would push it down further. It took a little over 30 mins to get there but it got there and I took a huge win of 40 pips which made up my losses and then some, giving me 7% for the day.

Oh yeah, through the compounding I've been doing this week my account has increased from 50k units to 60k units. Nice!

Several lessons for today:

-Remain humble and focused. Over-confidence leads to mistakes.
-Remain in high spirits. Allow my positive attitude to continually keep me above despair, even at the hardest of times.
-Identify situations where price is likely to run hard, then enter precise and patiently hold.

Day 46. +10.8. Ride em cowboy!

Today felt like I was in a rodeo. Price kept bucking me off but I was determined to see it through.

I mentioned in a previous post that I will work on getting in when price is telling me a move is about to happen. Twice today price was saying hello. The first time I held off then when I missed the nice move I said, "ah shit, this is exactly what I'm supposed to be working on." A little while later it happened again but this time I followed my nose because the nose knows and caught a couple pips. So glad that I made myself aware then actively worked on it.

Also in a previous post I mentioned that I should only use stop orders (limit in Oanda) and nothing else. Lately I've been coming to the realization that was wrong. There are a few instances where a market order just makes sense. Not often, but there are times. Such as today around 5:48. My pending hit then price bounced so I exited. But then it acted like it was about to continue down. I knew that if I were to spend even a couple extra seconds to enter a stop order I'd miss the move. So I entered at market and caught it. Not something I want to a do a lot but it's another tool in the pocket.

Day 45. +5.7. Chug chug chug

Market abused me the first couple trades. Hit my order and acted like it want to continue but bounced back for an immediate loss. But es ok mang, we'll do dis. And we did. Next trade took me downriver for a nice ride. Next play was standard. Last one was a crossover due to price saying, "Heeeeey, look at me. Look what I can can do!" So I said ok Stuart, and made a couple pips. That put me a little over 1% for the day but I was going to trade some more. However, price was just meandering around so I decided to end the session.

Day 44. +8.2. Christmas lights

For some reason today's chart reminds of Christmas lights, hence the title entry.

Three times today I felt that price was about to break through an area for a nice win. However, I didn't make those plays because I usually wait to see what price will do for a little longer. This has happened several times in the past as well. I think those particular moves have a higher chance of failure but when they hit they hit hard. Such as that move up just after 5:10. I told myself, "If it crosses xx, it's gonna blow up. Should I take it? Nah, I'll wait till it cross yy." But price moved so quickly there was no time to get in at yy and I was only able to get a very small piece of that move. Which of course, is still a great thing. But it will be even better if I can get a larger piece. I'm going to work on that.

Also, as of today I am compounding my account on a daily basis. Kampai!

Day 43 +12.7. First day with my new desk

4 trades today, all standard. The chart explains them all.

Loving my new desk. Adjusted it to the perfect height, lots of room for all 3 monitors and other stuff. It's great. I should have bought this a long time ago. Getting it here however was not the easiest thing in the world. I don't know why it didn't occur to me ahead of time, but it didn't fit in my car. So I had to stuff in my trunk halfway hanging out, haha, and tied it down with rope and twine. The trunk was so high in the air I couldn't see out my back window. Seeing as how I had 30 minute drive home and had to go up some hills I was worried about the rope coming undone and falling out so I held the twine ends in my hand as I drove, haha. Way too ghetto. Luckily no cops saw me and the toll guy didn't seem to care on my way over the Bay Bridge. So it turned out quite well. Good times.

Day 42. +6.8. Another day of crazy moves

Lots of moves today, especially after the news break but price was too crazy and spread too high so I stood aside and watched and waited. After spread finally came back to normal levels I got some trades in. The first trade I thought would break up hard, and it did. But price was so erratic that I didn't want to take any chances and got in/out quickly. No trying to hold. And that was that. 6.8 pips for the day and it's the weekend again! Fantastic!

Day 41. +6. The Crazy Train

Just one trade today, and it was the first sign of craziness. Price moved so fast through the trade that both MBT and Oanda feeds lagged behind really bad. When it finally caught up price had just moved down and sideways a while. At that point I thought it might go down more so I contemplated holding but with how price had just acted I decided to get out and take my profit.

Several minutes after the above, I was convinced price was going down so put in a pending sell. My news reader didn't show an event coming up but one appeared on the Oanda chart just a couple minutes out which surprised me. I canceled immediately so as not to get caught in the news craziness. Then news hit and price rode a train straight off a cliff. I was going to trade some more once it calmed down but the craziness continued and I decided to call it a day.

DAY 40!!! +7. Big moves and big lag

First off, it's DAY 40 BITCHES!!! OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH RIIIIGHT!!

I am now 2/3 of the way through my 60 day challenge. I feel like an entirely different trader than when I began. And I suppose I am. I'm much more disciplined, patient, calm, focused, and better able to identify what to do, what not do, and when to do it within various market conditions. When I take a loss I know I'll make it back and more. I easily get to sleep at 8pm and wake up at 4:30am which in itself is a radical change in my lifelong sleeping habits. Every day I look forward to trading and every day I feel like I'm progressing further. It's awesome. I'm also now ready for the next jump in units. I've been using 10,000 for the last 20 days. Starting tomorrow I will be using 50,000.

And on to the trades from today. 9 trades, 3 losers 6 winners. Fortunately, Oanda spread was often .8 today, something I haven't seen in a long time. Unfortunately, there was a ton of lag in Oanda's platform today. One of my losers should have been smaller and two of my winners should have been bigger. Oh well. It's a positive day so hey, it ended up well! However, I realized after the session that I may be able to close out via the position window quicker than the quote window when there's lag. So I'll try that next time.

So this weekend I'm going to get my second present to myself, using my Good Boy money, which is that desk I've been wanting. On top if it all the weather is supposed to be gorgeous all week. Yes!

Day 39. + 10.3. Small losses means big wins

So today I kept the losses small. Had two of them and think they were both around 2.5 pips. So much easier this way. This is the second time I've had to remind myself of this recently. I mean to make it the last.

Anyway, first trade was a bounce rather than a breakout again. Seems that I'm getting more comfortable with those trades. Nice. Second trade small loss. Third trade I made a slight booboo. It was a winner for around 3pips but I felt I could hold longer. I was wrong this time and ended up taking a loss. I should have exited before it became a loser. I've been working on balancing the fine gentlemen act of holding longer but giving it room to move. I feel I'm getting better at it, as can be seen by the bigger wins I've been having recently, but I'm still trying to reconcile the optimum point in my mind. Getting there though. Either way, I still kept the loss small so that's good.

4th trade was also a bounce. 5th and 6th trades were standard continuations. And I'm done with a nice day.

Oh yeah, based on the recommendations of the peeps at BMT I watched the documentary Inside Job over the weekend. Really eye opening but also pretty depressing. Damn.

Double oh yeah, I started meditating again. I used to do it every day but fell out of it. Getting back into it. Feels great. Alright, I'm ouuuuuta heeeere.

Day 38. +.3. Slightly positive day but bad trading part 2

What could have been a big winning day turned out to be a barely winning one because of two bad trade. One horrible and one just bad.

1st trade I was going to play the bounce off the resistance. Like a previous post I knew if it went opposite it would go hard. This meant more than ever I should keep the loss small. I didn't. It move extremely fast and I immediately saw I was down several pips. I should have exited right then. Instead I held. I was too stubborn in thinking it was going down even though price was screaming to me it was about to move up. And it did. I got out with around a 9pip loss. Ugh. In those moement there were two things I fucked up. One, I allowed too big of a loss. And two, I could have avoided it altogether and had a win instead. Price was telling me it was about to move up. And normally I would have played it that way but I was married to the idea that it was going down and I didn't pick up the clues.

The second trade was also a loss that was too big, around 5 pips. Ridiculous. By the third trade I told myself, "Ok, no more! If we're going to come back from this we need to keep the losses small!" Which I did on the fourth trade.

Next comes a gray area. A trade hit, went positive and went hard. It got to about 13pips positive at which point it consolidated. From that action I would normally feel that price would continue past that point if I gave it some time. So, from that perspective I told myself to hold the trade because once it broke through it would pop nicely. On the other hand, I was spurred on by the idea that I needed a big win. That kind of emotion is harmful to my trading. Even though I pulled it out in the end, again, my trading should never be overly emotional. My motivation for a trade should be simple: Aim where I want to go but trade based on what price is telling me. Nothing more, nothing less. I will work on this.

In spite of everything there are a few positives. Knowing that I've been able to pull ahead when far behind is a confidence booster. Each time I've made the mistake of taking too big of a loss I've made myself aware of it and took the proper actions after. Another positive, is that I'm seeing areas where I can hold longer (when positive) than I usually do. In the future this will lead to bigger winning days a little more often. And lastly, I'm now acutely aware of what large losses do to my emotions and will keep them small consitently. Again, there are only a few instances where it should reach 6pips (never more), but 99% of the time they should be 1-3 only. As Bloody Loco would say, this is something I need to "recognize ASAP. ACE-FUCKING-SAP!!!"

And I will Bloody Loco, I will.