Researching

No updates over the last few days and might be a while before another one because I haven't been trading. I've been going back over my method and mistakes. Also trying to see if there's any way I can streamline my method to use probabilities more and discretion less. We'll see how it goes.

-20

Seriously beginning to doubt myself now. Something I've been wondering lately is if my large increase in lot size is causing a psychogical issue. I feel like I was more comfortable trading the small size, maybe that allowed me to easily take the small wins and now I'm too concerned about the money. Maybe I need to overhaul my method. Bleh. I don't know.

+1

The market moved up 260 pips during my session and out of those 260 I took home...1. hah. Spread was too wide most of the time so I just sat by and watched. During these types of moves I don't know that spread will ever be .9 - 1.3 for long. So may just have to go with it on these rare days. The risk is increased but so is the reward. I'll have to think about it.

-8

+4.7

+1.2

Week 23 Stats

A rough week kicked off by the bad trading on Monday. Which then led to more bad trading on Tuesday as I traded to make up the losses rather than trade correctly.

Before Jan I'd make rediculous trades daily, then compound the problem by trying to make up the losses. Now I do it only several times a month. This shows improvement but I need to improve more.

Two things I've identified as needing to work on:

1) As mentioned above, long term consistency. Doesn't do much good to trade well for a few weeks then trade so bad in one day that it wipes out the previous hard work.

2) Cultivating a long term mentality. Meaning to keep calm when going through a rough patch, because if I trade correctly I'll come back positive.

Both the above will go a long way to minimizing mistakes and maximizing profits.

-2

The first trade taunted me. Went exactly like I thought it would the moment after I exited.

Rough week.

-11

Frustrating.

+4.7

-12

Trying to make up losses leads to more losses. As much as I want to continue trading to make up for the negative pips I know I'm too emotional at the moment. So ending session here.

-30

All trades were invalid, shouldn't have taken any. Trading like a complete noob. Got very little sleep last night which is probably impairing my judgement, probably shouldn't have even traded. Stopping here.

Week 22 Stats

A good week.

+8.9

Mistake #1 - Should have skipped that first trade. It was clearly an incorrect play.
Mistake #2 - Should have exited earlier on the first two trades.

+13

The first trade looks like I bought then sold for a small profit. But I actually sold first then bought for a loss of 2 pips. Lots of movement today but most of it was so quick that it would be too risky to take. So ending the session here.

+6.1

Only one good place to get in today, so only one trade.

Week 21 stats

Just realized that week 21 was only one day, Friday. So here it is.

No trades

No good place to get in today =  No trades.

+5.5

At the end the up move was forceful so should have held the 3rd trade longer.

Week 19 Stats

I'm going to skip week 20 and start at week 21 to better keep track on a monthly basis. Which means there was only 3 weeks of trading in this month. My trades today will be tracked as the start of week 21.

+6.1

Not a whole lot I could trade today but got a few in for +6.1.

+2

Crazy day. Was only able to find one place to get a trade in. So 1 trade for 2 pips.

-3.1

Should have exited earlier on the first 2 trades.

+7

Small pieces of the down and up move for 7 pips.

Week 18 stats

A slightly positive week after a negative start.

+6.3

4 trades. Again a couple I had to edit into the graph. You can tell which because of bigger arrows and lines instead of markers, heh. Wanted to trade more but spread went to 1.8 near the end so done for the session.

+4.3

Two trades. The first one I didn't get into the sim in time so I added the markers myself.

+2.3

Slow day, only 1 trade for +2.3. For some reason the blog isn't uploading the graph. I'll try uploading again tonight.

*Edit - Added chart

Rangy no trade day

No trades today because couldn't find a good place to get in. Was ranging throughout the session. On to the next one.

-10. Today the trend was not my friend

Even with the strong trend I came out -10 today. No bueno but on to tomorrow I go.

60 Day Challenge Afterthoughts

My 60 Day Challenge.

It started rough with big changes to my lifestyle, became smooth sailing in the middle, and ended rougher than it began.

Within that length of time I renewed bonds with old friends, almost made a bone marrow donation (the recipient opted out), visited China for the first time, went through a breakup, got surgery on my eye, and strengthened ties with family I hadn't seen in years. I went from feeling like a noob in the markets to feeling like a gifted trader with a golden touch to feeling like I know nothing and should give up to feeling grateful to the market and happy to pay for it's teachings.

In a span of 6 months what do I have to say about the experience? Depending on what point during that time frame you ask me that, my reply would be different. As of now it's this; Thank you.

Thank you to my friends, my family, the readers of my blog and journal who have commented and shown support and a huge, HUGE thank you to the Market.

Yesterday was a roller coaster of emotion but contained within that misery was an invaluable lesson. The Market has clearly shown me what works. It has also shown me, just as clearly, what does not work. My pain was rooted in what I felt I lost, but what have I lost? The money was in exchange for showing me what not to do, what does not work. That knowledge alone is worth the price I paid many times over. In a very real sense I have paid for information and thus have gained. I'd like to say that my tuition is paid in full but that would be naive as I'm sure there's more to learn. However, I'm looking forward to putting my new knowledge to use on Monday and moving forward once again.

Oooooooohriiiiiiiiiiight!

Week 17 stats

Ooomphala. What a doozy week 17 was. Didn't trade today so I could sort through my emotions. More in the next post.

Day 60. -131.

Today was a bad bad baaaaaaaad day. And it all started off because I didn't take a 2pip loss. Jesus, that sounds so retarded, hah. Oh man. That's a -32% loss in one day. One day wiped out all of last months gains.

I'm a better trader than this and it's time to get it together.

Day 57 -14, Day 58 - 8, Day 59 +5.

Rough Monday and Tuesday. Giving back what I made on Friday. However, I see where I went wrong and how to remedy it. Thus I took it a bit slower today and came out positive.

I didn't saved the charts the last two days because I didn't want to see them after the session, hah. But that's dumb because it doesn't allow me to reflect properly later on. So from this point I'll make sure to post up all the charts. Speaking of which, I will be posting the NT charts here on out instead of Oanda charts. Since my trades are based on the range charts in NT, post analysis is best done with those. I should have been doing that since the beginning. This means I have to mimic my trades in the NT sim so the entries/exits will be slightly delayed but that's fine. It will still allow me to see what I need to analyze my trading. I'll post an NT chart from today's session this evening.

*Edit - Today's charts added.

Week 16 Stats

Only 1 trading day in this week since I was only able to trade today. But it was a good gain for the day, reclaiming a sizable portion of week 15's loss. Also, even with less trading days than the previous month AND the huge losing day I still had a bigger % increase this month than last month. Nice.

Day 56. +14.2. John Connor sent me.

Got back last night and to get back on my trading schedule I stayed up all night. Which I was kind of used to anyway since over the last couple weeks I'd been sleeping all day because of the surgery. Then I couldn't get back to sleep until 5am or so. So not too much of a stretch this morning to stay up. Come 8pm tonight I'll be dead tired which will be perfect.

As for trading, I don't know if it's true but mentally it feels as if Monday and Friday are the hardest days. Monday because it's slow, Friday because it's all over the place. But I felt up to the challenge and went with it. All standard trades. Small losses + Bigger wins = Me gusta.

In other news, I look like the Terminator with how red my eye is from the surgery. It should be fine in a couple weeks though. On our way across the border I was wearing sunglasses to protect my eye. Pull up and the agent looks through our truck and passports then looks over at me, "Hey son, take off those glasses."

*I take them off and look at him.

"Well shit!" he gasps. "Put those glasses back on and keep driving" and he waves us through.

Hahah. Had a good laugh at his reaction as we drove off.

Anyway, it's now time to play some gee-tar and enjoy the weekend.

Pterygium removal - update

 Well, I got the procedure done yesterday morning and everything went fine. My friend emailed me in the afternoon asking how I was feeling and how it went (I'm in Mexico so my phone it out of it's network). I replied with the following...

Procedure itself was cool. Not much pain. Was a weird sensation. They used some drops to numb the eye a bit. Then when laying down they taped my eye open then us used this metal thing to hold it wide open which was uncomfortable. Then this light that was as bright as a police searchlight was brought in and shone directly into my eye. That part sucked. Reaction was to close my eye but I couldn't. Then they took a needle and inserted it into two places on the side of my eye which was the main numbing agent. Those needles hurt a bit. But after the full numbing went into effect there was very little pain.

From that point the they squirted water in my eye and some other stuff. Then they used a scapel to start cutting away. I could see the whole thing through that eye of course but could only feel pressure. It felt like if you put your eye up against the windshield during a carwash. You're looking out seeing all this stuff happen to your eye and your vision is affected but you don't feel anything. When they would cut and tug at the layer of eye when threading the stitches through it would distort my vision and then it would go back to normal.

Took about 40 mins then they bandaged me up, gave me a prescription for the pharmacy. Got the medicine, came home, napped, and just woke up and my eye is not feeling good. The stitches are constantly scratching the inside of my eyelid. Feels like there's thorn tips in there. But just gotta deal with it. Going back tomorrow for a checkup then once more next week to get the stitches removed. That will be a good day.

So today I went in for the checkup and they said everything was looking good and scheduled the stitch removal for next Wed. The gave me a prescription for some eye drops to put in every 4 hours and ointment. The stitches were still really bothering my eye so I came home a took a nap and when I woke up it was actually a lot better. Still a bit scratchy but much better than before. I put the drop in my eye just a bit ago and it was the first time I got a look at my eye since the procedure. It wasn't pretty, haha. It looked exactly like you'd expect if your eye was sliced by a knife. Could also see the stitches in there. Fortunately it doesn't feel anywhere as near as bad as it looks and in the coming weeks it should go back to looking like normal except no pterygium. All praise be to Allah! And Jesus. And Buddha.

I originally thought I'd get some trades in but with my sporadic sleep schedule cause of naps and my eye feeling not so bueno I've decided not to trade. Just been browsing the net and playing guitar. Which I'm about to do now.

Week 15 Stats

So the end of the week brought a slight change for the positive in the amount lost from Monday. -8.7% for the week but it's still better than -10%. And I relearned some important lessons along the way. I'll be doing my best to sear those lessons into my brain over the next couple weeks.

Day 55. +8.7. The trend IS my friend.

Remembering my lessons. Small losses. Going with the trend. Staying away from ranges and S/R levels.

This may be my last post for the next two weeks. I'm going to get surgery on my eye to remove a pterygium and I don't know if I'll be up for trading after the surgery. Also, I'll be staying at my Aunt's and I don't know what her internet connection is like. Bringing my laptop just in case though.

Adios!

Day 54. -10. ;p

It appears there's another lesson the market wanted to teach me. Which is...GO WITH THE TREND. Of course I should go with trend. Hellllo. As you can see in the first part of the chart I for whatever reason did NOT trade with the trend. I was trading in a range. It was about 30pips wide, but still rangy and choppy and that's where I got my ass kicked. I didn't know how much I was down but I knew it was substantial (later found out it was around 35 pips). At that point I was thinking "Holyyyyy FUCK. Not again." hah. Then I thought, "Wait, wait, wait. This is where things get hard. I can't get down on myself and I can't quit like this. But I can't trade with this mindset either." I told myself it was gut check time and I needed to pull it together. Took some deep breaths and a couple minutes out and saw exactly why I was getting tossed around like a whore. TREND TREND TREND. Shortly thereafter a trend developed and I slowly worked my way back up from -35 to only -10 (only -10, hah). Had I traded with the trend from the very beginning I'd have a +25 day rather than a -10. But such is life when you forget the lessons you learned previously.

Day 53. +6.5. One foot in front of the other.

Was a bit nervous today due to my trading over the last week. Started feeling like I couldn't see my setups or identify good times to get in. But once I focused on going with the trend and taking small bites it started coming back to me. Two trades for 6.5. The second trade though I missed a huge part of the move. I exited way too soon because I was so jumpy, hah, but after a couple days I'm sure everything will be back to normal. For now, it's a good start back in the right direction. So gonna end it here for today and play some guitar before going to work.

Percentage Stats

I decided to look at my trades and tally them up on a spreadsheet to put my loss on Monday in perspective. It was actually better than I thought and progress is definitely seen. The chart shows the weekly % changes in account size, as well as the total for each month. Right now I'm in week 15. The loss on Monday was equal to 10% but is not included because the week isn't over yet. Even with that 10% loss I'm still doing quite well and the gains are on an upward progression which is reassuring. Plan to continue tracking this as time goes on.

Day 52 (Monday) -43!!! An expensive lesson

I traded yesterday and things were going swell until the desire to hit a home run struck me again. It happened right after a I took a loss...however, I wasn't even negative at that point. I was still up a few pips! From there my trading degenerated into what has been happening over the last week. Those huge gains I made with trading bad were promptly taken away. Which makes sense, because in a way I didn't really earn them. It was more like the market let me hold on to the pips to see what it felt like then decided to teach me a lesson and take it back.

At the time I was so disgusted with my trading I didn't even want to look at the screen to take a screenshot of the chart. I just shut it all down and felt sorry for myself. But last night it really started to sink in that it was all my doing. I CHOSE to trade that way. It was completely up to me to put myself back in the hole. And it's completely up to me to get myself back out of it again. Which I will.

I was going to trade today but was so tired when I woke up that I decided it was better to get some sleep. I don't want to repeat the same mistakes so need to be fully rested. So tomorrow (Wed), I'll be back at it.

No trades today.

Decided to take a day off from trading and clean out the clutter from my head. I'm already feeling more relaxed and have a clear idea where I was going wrong and why. Looking forward to trading again on Monday! Until then, it's the weekend!

Day 51. +.7 Super dumb trading.

While I came out slightly ahead in the end, today's trading was truly garbage. Easily the worst trading I've done in a long time and extremely disappointed with myself. This is the type of trading that blows people's accounts up and I thought I was above it by this point. Apparently not. $10 in the bad boy jar today. :(

I still have to ponder ponder ponder to be sure, but I think I know what's up. I've focused my mind on going for 10pips a day, instead of 4. This appears to be having a domino affect.

10 pip goal > enter in areas I wouldn't normally to catch bigger moves > these plays have a higher rate of failure which put me back more often > When I do go into profit I hold longer to get more pips since I have a bigger goal > Which leads to allowing bigger stops to account for the bigger swings to reach my bigger goals > If I get stopped out I now have a large stop that was hit plus many small ones > I'm down a hefty amount which adds more fuel to going for even bigger moves > the cycle repeats. 

In contrast to...

4 pip goal > enter in very specific high probability areas > make a pip or two and exit > if take a loss or two, they are tiny so easy to make up > repeat a couple times > have my 4+ pips and done for the day.

Soooooo much easier on me that way. I already learned this lesson several months ago, or so I thought. And I know I've been reminding myself of this a little much lately so clearly there is something unresolved that I need to figure out.

Hmmmm, something just came to me. That familiar feeling. The desire to switch switch switch. Inconsistency. For a while there I was going along doing my own thing making pips and being merry. But a couple weeks ago I started becoming more active on Forex boards. I wasn't looking for a new method but someone mentioned in a non-related thread that some guys are making xx amount of pips a day. Piqued my interest so I checked it out. Method is somewhat similar to mine but they enter like scalpers and hold more like daytraders or sometimes swing traders. Which nets them tons of pips. This idea planted itself in my mind. Reflecting back on the one thought that has dominated my mind lately it's obvious. I've been completely focused on entering and holding holding holding. Making 20, 30, 40 pips a day. When I think about the future I think about making more and more and more pips. Without purposely meaning to I've changed a core principal of my method. I'm no longer trading like myself. I'm trading like someone else. Someone I don't even know. This is exactly what happened the last time I went through this.

Perhaps my recent string of success has left me in a vulnerable state. My wins increasing my vanity, allowing old demons to slip back in disguised as friends. Not even friends. Disguised as me!

I need to think.

Day 50. +10.7. Fear and greed.

Today I did exactly what I said didn't want to do (yesterdays post). I felt price was going down and knew it would bounce back after it broke. As expected it did exactly that. Fortunately, this time it didn't reach my predetermined exit point and I was able to ride it out and down for profit. But I said yesterday that I wanted to exit when it stalls rather than take major heat and possible huge loss. But I stayed in and I've identified why. It's because of fear and greed.

When price broke down and bounced I went from +7 pips to "only" +4 pips. I didn't like losing those paper 3pips and possibly more (fear) and wanted to hold to make them back and more (greed). I also knew that once it went further it would continue. So it broke down again so I was then +9 and it bounced again so I was only +7pips. And I held more until it retraced hard. Though price was saying it wanted to go down, which is a valid reason to hold, fear and greed spurring me on is not a valid reason. For that alone I should have exited. Looking back I can see where these two emotions have affected me in the past and it's always been something that tickled the back of my mind. Though I wanted to trade more today I'm ending my session because I really need to get a handle on this before it causes major damage.

Day 49. +18.3. Three trades and a Small Milestone

That second trade may look a little strange. I was around 7 pips in profit and let it turn into a 14pip loser. However, it was planned out beforehand. When I put in that second pending order I felt confident that price was going down. When it broke I felt that price was screaming in my face, "We're going down!!!!! Then we're going to retrace, we may even retrace hard but I'm telling you Soma, WE'RE GOING DOWN EVEN FURTHER!!!. LOOK AT US MOVE. WE'RE GOING DOOOOWN!!!" hah. Based on how price was behaving I was totally convinced it was going down, would likely retrace, but then go down even further. I even told myself that I was so sure of it I would be willing to eat a large loss.

So price broke down, stalled then bounced back up. Higher, higher, and higher still. I had already planned to get out above a certain point and when price reached that point I exited with a 14pip loss. I didn't feel upset though or any despair whatsoever. It was more like gratitude to myself for grabbing my balls and going with my conviction. I felt that I would be right doing this much more often than I'd be wrong so it would all works itself out in the end. Anyway, wouldn't you know, as soon as I exited price turned. 'There it goes" I told myself and was going to get in after a break beneath the previous low. But then I though, "Wait a second. I know it's going lower. It's telling me it will. I know it's going to break past where I previously thought. Is there a better place to get in than the previous low?" And there was. So I put in the pending. It hit and exactly as I expected it broke down and I took a 30+ pip win.

Replaying this in my mind it's great that I made 18 pips today. But an even better play would have been just to exit when it stalled then get back in like a usually do. That would have given me around the same result except I wouldn't have a loss to overcome. And what if I happened to be wrong and price would have kept going up? Then I may not have been able to so easily make up the loss. So yeah, better to stick to what I normally do and continue working on holding when price screams at me.

Oh yeah, the milestone! Today, after over a year in Forex I am finally profitable!!! Fuck yeah. In 2010, for 9 months I steadily lost money jumping from method to method and always changing rules. It wasn't until I got serious and made this 60day challenge for myself in Jan 2011 that things finally started turning around. Since Jan I've slowly and consistently clawed my way back up, and now I can say I am out of the hole. I am officially profitable. haha. Yes! Gonna keep it up and keep moving forward.

Day 48. +11. First day at 200k (2 lots)

Self-explanatory chart.

Feeling more and more confident in my abilities each day I decided to up my account even further and traded 200k units which is 2 full lots. I wondered if there would be much difference in slippage vs the 10k units I used when I first started but no, seems the same so far. Muy bueno.

Also I'm pushing myself a bit more. Again I made some pips in the beginning and would normally stop there. But I feel I'm capable of more and want to push myself further. So continued to trade. Took a few small losses then a couple big wins and one tiny one to put me at +11 pips for the day.

Day 47. +28.7. Overtrading and lessons

 
Long one today.

Started off the day with a couple wins for around 5 pips. Normally I'd stop there but I decided to go for more. Well, I think I was feeling a little too confident because I took some trades that I normally wouldn't. On top of that price was really did not want to play nice with my method of trading. But I think the biggest problem was just me getting ahead of myself and thinking I could win almost any trade, hah. This is a feeling I've touched on previously when I mentioned that while playing poker, if I was up a good amount I'd start to get reckless. I actually noticed this feeling within myself over the last couple days and was trying to let go of it. Apparently it still got to me, though there is one very good thing..

In the past if I were down a bunch of money I would feel a sense of despair and I'd think, "Fuck it, I've already lost this much who cares if I lose more?!" and I'd start to make really dumb plays which would cause me to lose more money. Those were rough times. Today, due to the trades I was taking I was down around 15pips. I felt that familiar sense of, "Fuck it, let's take this next trade, who cares if we lose more?!" Ugh. I felt it loud and clear but I recognized it and forced myself to take a minute out. Took some deep breaths and told myself, "No can't take just any trade. Everything will be fine. Focus. Relax. Take only the good trades. If we have a losing day, fine, but lets at least salvage what we can."

After steadying myself I took stock of what I was doing wrong and what the chart was telling me. As I looked at it price was definitely saying it wanted to go down, then I looked at the larger charts and I saw that they agreed. My main chart showed a very distinct pattern and I felt that if there was any way I would salvage the day it would be by taking that one trade. So I had to wait. No just jumping in willy nilly silly billy. And when the trade hits I would have to be patient and let it run just like price was telling me it wanted to do. So I waited and watched very closely. 20 minutes later price hit exactly where I wanted and bounced to continue the same exact pattern. I got in and held, knowing that the momentum of each level break would push it down further. It took a little over 30 mins to get there but it got there and I took a huge win of 40 pips which made up my losses and then some, giving me 7% for the day.

Oh yeah, through the compounding I've been doing this week my account has increased from 50k units to 60k units. Nice!

Several lessons for today:

-Remain humble and focused. Over-confidence leads to mistakes.
-Remain in high spirits. Allow my positive attitude to continually keep me above despair, even at the hardest of times.
-Identify situations where price is likely to run hard, then enter precise and patiently hold.

Day 46. +10.8. Ride em cowboy!

Today felt like I was in a rodeo. Price kept bucking me off but I was determined to see it through.

I mentioned in a previous post that I will work on getting in when price is telling me a move is about to happen. Twice today price was saying hello. The first time I held off then when I missed the nice move I said, "ah shit, this is exactly what I'm supposed to be working on." A little while later it happened again but this time I followed my nose because the nose knows and caught a couple pips. So glad that I made myself aware then actively worked on it.

Also in a previous post I mentioned that I should only use stop orders (limit in Oanda) and nothing else. Lately I've been coming to the realization that was wrong. There are a few instances where a market order just makes sense. Not often, but there are times. Such as today around 5:48. My pending hit then price bounced so I exited. But then it acted like it was about to continue down. I knew that if I were to spend even a couple extra seconds to enter a stop order I'd miss the move. So I entered at market and caught it. Not something I want to a do a lot but it's another tool in the pocket.

Day 45. +5.7. Chug chug chug

Market abused me the first couple trades. Hit my order and acted like it want to continue but bounced back for an immediate loss. But es ok mang, we'll do dis. And we did. Next trade took me downriver for a nice ride. Next play was standard. Last one was a crossover due to price saying, "Heeeeey, look at me. Look what I can can do!" So I said ok Stuart, and made a couple pips. That put me a little over 1% for the day but I was going to trade some more. However, price was just meandering around so I decided to end the session.